BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//wp-events-plugin.com//7.2.3.1//EN TZID:Asia/Kolkata X-WR-TIMEZONE:Asia/Kolkata BEGIN:VEVENT UID:151@cds.iisc.ac.in DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20251015T100000 DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20251015T110000 DTSTAMP:20251004T125751Z URL:https://cds.iisc.ac.in/events/ph-d-thesis-colloquium-102-cds-15-octobe r-2025-human-wildlife-conflict-modeling-and-mitigation-integrating-agent-b ased-simulations-green-security-games-and-climate-change-analysis/ SUMMARY:Ph.D: Thesis Colloquium: 102 : CDS: 15\, October 2025 "Human-Wildli fe Conflict Modeling and Mitigation: Integrating Agent-Based Simulations\, Green Security Games\, and Climate Change Analysis" DESCRIPTION:DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTATIONAL AND DATA SCIENCES\nPh.D. Thesis Col loquium\n\n\n\nSpeaker : Ms. Anjali. P\nS.R. Number : 06-18-01-10-12-20-1- 18580\nTitle : "Human-Wildlife Conflict Modeling and Mitigation: Integrati ng Agent-Based Simulations\, Green Security Games\, and Climate Change Ana lysis"\nResearch Supervisor: Dr. Deepak Subramani\nDate &\; Time : Octo ber 15\, 2025 (Wednesday)\, 10:00 AM\nVenue : #102\, CDS Seminar Hall\n\n\ n\nABSTRACT\nHuman-Wildlife Conflict (HWC) represents one of the most pres sing challenges in biodiversity conservation\, particularly in a changing climate\, and requires innovative strategies for effective management. Thi s thesis develops and applies Agent-Based Models (ABMs) to understand comp lex socio-ecological systems experiencing HWC\, focusing on two key specie s: Asian Elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Periyar-Agasthyamalai complex of the Western Ghats and Saltwater Crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus) in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands (ANI). ABMs provide a flexible framework that captures individual differences\, social structures\, and decision-making processes\, making them particularly well-suited for modeling the heteroge neity inherent in these conflict scenarios. Given the distinct ecological contexts and conflict dynamics of these two species\, the thesis is struct ured into two parts\, each addressing unique research objectives tailored to the specific challenges of the Human-Elephant Conflict and the Human-Cr ocodile Conflict problems. Furthermore\, ABMs are integrated with a novel green security game formulation to learn effective mitigation strategies f or the Human-Elephant Conflict problem. The impact of climate change on th e management strategies of the crocodile population is analyzed to recomme nd science-based data-driven policy for conservation.\n\nThe first part of the thesis focuses on Human-Elephant conflict (HEC). We first developed a Random Forest model to estimate the species distribution of Asian elephan ts in India and examine inter-annual and intra-annual spatiotemporal varia bility in suitable habitats. Using climatic variables\, topographic condit ions\, and satellite-derived metrics (land use/land cover\, net primary pr oductivity\, leaf area index\, and normalized difference vegetation index) as predictors\, alongside species sighting data from the Global Biodivers ity Information Reserve\, we found that seasonal reductions in suitable ha bitat may explain elephant migration patterns. Alarmingly\, the total avai lable suitable habitat area has declined\, further exacerbating HEC.\n\nBu ilding on this foundation\, we developed a spatially explicit ABM for Seet hathode\, Kerala\, India\, where HEC is a recurring concern. Unlike existi ng models that only consider food scarcity as a conflict driver\, our ABM incorporates a broader range of factors that influence elephant movement: crop habituation\, risk-taking behavior\, seasonality\, and thermoregulati on requirements. The prototype ABM was developed to simulate interactions between humans and solitary bull elephants\, addressing two main challenge s: the complex behavior of elephants and insufficient movement data from t he region. Using data from the extensive literature survey\, expert insigh ts\, and field surveys\, we created a behavior model that incorporates cro p habituation\, thermoregulation\, and aggression. To develop the movement model\, we designed a four-step calibration method to adapt relocation da ta from radio-tagged elephants in Indonesia to the model domain. The ABM's structure\, including assumptions\, submodels\, and data usage\, is detai led following the Overview\, Design concepts\, Details (ODD) protocol. The ABM simulates various food availability scenarios to study elephant behav ior and environmental impacts on space use and conflict patterns\, success fully reproducing observed movement patterns and revealing the emergence o f HEC hotspots within the study area. The simulation results indicate that wet months increase conflict and that thermoregulation significantly infl uences elephant movements and crop raiding patterns\, with starvation and crop habituation intensifying these patterns. This prototype ABM represent s an initial model for developing a decision support system in wildlife ma nagement that will be further enhanced with layers of complexity in variou s dimensions.\n\nWe then investigated the spatial dynamics of HEC under di fferent water availability scenarios. The main objective was to examine ho w artificial water sources (water holes) and natural water sources (rivers and streams) affect the spatial distribution of elephants and crop-raidin g incidents within the study area. Numerical experimental results emphasiz e the role of water availability in the evolution of the elephant trajecto ries. Our findings suggest that crop raiding is not only a foraging behavi or but also occurs opportunistically as elephants move into human settleme nts to access water sources. We also studied the spatial scales at which t he ABM generates biologically plausible trajectories by investigating the elephants' frequency of visits to water sources. This study offers a valua ble framework for understanding the dynamics of HEC and implies that effec tive conservation and conflict mitigation strategies could depend on strat egic water management.\n\nFinally\, we framed HEC as a challenging variant of a green security game where elephants strategically target crops and w ater sources\, while defenders must allocate scarce patrol resources to pr otect forest-agricultural boundaries. Unlike typical security game setting s\, HEC involves adaptive opponents with uncertain behavior and significan t observability limitations. We adapted the Follow-the-Perturbed Leader wi th Uniform Exploration (FPL-UE) algorithm for HEC mitigation\, making thre e key contributions to online green security games: (1) reformulating the defender's problem for adversarial settings with partial observability\, w here elephant strategies remain largely unknown\; (2) developing a dynamic mechanism for learning and updating rewards and penalties associated with covered and uncovered boundary patches in real-time as elephants adapt to guard deployments\; and (3) validating our approach using the calibrated ABM\, demonstrating convergence properties against multiple adversarial mo dels. This work presents a first-of-its-kind game-theoretic solution verif ied against realistic opponent adaptation in the human-wildlife conflict d omain\, extending security game theory to ecological adversaries with emer gent learning behaviors and opening new research directions in adaptive re source allocation under model uncertainty.\n\nThe second part of the thesi s focuses on Human-Crocodile Conflict (HCC). HCC represents a significant wildlife management issue in the ANI\, where saltwater crocodiles are resp onsible for more human deaths and injuries than any other crocodilian spec ies. The spatial overlap between human populations and optimal crocodile h abitats creates a concentrated conflict zone requiring urgent management s trategies. The ANI provides an ideal habitat for saltwater crocodiles due to its unique geographical and ecological characteristics. The growing ANI crocodile population may potentially worsen HCC in the coming years.\n\nW e developed a prototype ABM to study crocodile population dynamics and dem ographic changes in the South Andaman Islands\, incorporating territorial behavior\, site fidelity\, and dominance hierarchies observed in saltwater crocodiles. These factors influence population counts by shaping space us e. The ABM represents demographic processes without extensive parameteriza tion requirements typical of Population Matrix Models\, which is significa nt given that crocodile population census surveys are massive undertakings with inherent difficulties in accurately quantifying size classes in wild populations. The ABM also integrates temperature-dependent sex determinat ion\, where ambient and nest temperatures affect hatchling sex ratios\, sk ewing populations toward females. We investigated how these factors influe nce population dynamics and their potential contribution to future HCC. Ou r projections indicate that rising temperatures will drive a significant d emographic shift\, favoring the production of male crocodiles\, which are the highest threat group involved in HCCs. This study marks a significant methodological leap for crocodilian ecology\, representing one of the firs t population models specifically tailored to the unique demographic and en vironmental constraints of small localized populations such as those found in the South Andaman Islands.\n\nThe final component of the thesis focuse s on policy recommendations for managing HCC using our ABM. Historically\, successful HCC mitigation strategies have controlled population size thro ugh adult culling or egg harvesting. Other methods\, such as removing and relocating problematic adults\, have proven ineffective as removed individ uals either return upon re-release or are replaced by other dominant males . Our ABM effectively captures these aspects of territoriality and space u se. We determine the minimum necessary intervention required that could po tentially yield the maximum possible reduction of HCCs by controlling the demographic growth. The ABM also allows us to study the differential impli cations of targeted interventions in various demographic groups for long-t erm population stability and HCC mitigation. Currently\, effective data-dr iven management strategies for HCC are absent in the ANI. Our study is the first evidence-based initiative that aims to generate the data necessary to establish sustainable policies for long-term HCC management.\n\n\n\nALL ARE WELCOME CATEGORIES:Events,Ph.D. Thesis Colloquium END:VEVENT BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:Asia/Kolkata X-LIC-LOCATION:Asia/Kolkata BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20241015T100000 TZOFFSETFROM:+0530 TZOFFSETTO:+0530 TZNAME:IST END:STANDARD END:VTIMEZONE END:VCALENDAR